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Believe in the Model: Mishandle the Emergency

Simon French and Carmen Niculae

French is referring to typology of decisions (The Cynefin Model by D. Snowden (Article)):

  • Known space – all physical systems and behaviours are understood and modelled; cause – effect relationships are known; consequences and actions may be predicted;
  • Knowable space; cause – effect relationships are generally understood, insufficient data to make immediate firm forecast of the consequences of an action;
  • Complex phase; many potential interactions to disentangle particular causes and effects;
  • Chaotic space; event happens beyond experience, no knowledge for cause and effect. “Decision support cannot be analytical because there is no concept of how to break things down into an analysis”.

Major risk events and crises are in complex phase. “[…] crisis response should anticipate that social, political and economic issues may increase in importance, becoming major drivers in the decision making process”. In order to work in complex and chaotic spaces more collaborative and creative tool is needed, which is drawing together and building a “variety of perspectives on the issue”. There is danger that “short, culture, time pressure and inexperience led DMS (decision makers ) to focus on and in believe short-term, over-detailed technical models of the potential consequences, ignoring the potential of complex social, political and economic issues to dominate in determining the ultimate impact […]”. By adding “[…] collaboration tools to the information systems used for crisis response […]”, the DMS is able to “[…] build and explore shared perspectives on how the situation may evolve, particularly in relation to the social, political and economic aspects”.

kritis/summary.txt · Last modified: 2015/03/24 15:32 (external edit)